Attorney and writer Seth Abramson, former public defender and experienced criminal investigator, explains how we’re in in for the long haul with the Trump-Russia investigation. One take-away: While the new Trumpian reality often seems like a made-for-TV ratings-driven spectacle, the real investigation is going to be slow and methodical, not a news cycle roller-coaster ride.
(We’ll still love every minute of it though.)
(THREAD) I'm an experienced criminal investigator and attorney. Here's a SIMPLE FACT that will TRANSFORM how you se… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(1) Americans are conditioned by books, TV, and film to believe that criminal cases move relatively quickly prior to any legal appeals.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(2) In fact, a no- or low-investigation state-level MISDEMEANOR (e.g., arrest is on-site) takes well over THREE MONTHS from start to finish.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(3) Meanwhile, a no- or low-investigation state-level FELONY (e.g., arrest is onsite) often takes well over SIX MONTHS from start to finish.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(4) A state-level FELONY that's INVESTIGATION-INTENSIVE (e.g. breaking up a drug-distribution ring) often takes OVER A YEAR start to finish.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(5) A state-level, investigation-intensive MAJOR FELONY, like homicide—and I've tried these—will take over EIGHTEEN MONTHS start to finish.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(6) What about the FEDERAL court system? Well, it moves FAR SLOWER than the state courts. Many federal felonies take YEARS start to finish.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(7) It's in this context that I tell you this: the Trump-Russia scandal is the MOST COMPLEX FEDERAL CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION of our LIFETIMES.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(8) The FBI began investigating the Trump campaign's Russia ties last July. The fed investigation into these ties is now in its tenth month.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(9) What this means is, it's UNBELIEVABLY EARLY in the federal criminal investigation into the Trump campaign's Russian ties. *SUPER* EARLY.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(10) This is why the White House, GOP Congressmen, and far-right trolls like Louise Mensch want you to think it's LATE in the investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(11) To this end, the White House uses Sean Spicer and cable-news surrogates to ask America, every day, "Where's the evidence of collusion?"
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(12) To this end, the *only* non-leak-related questions Congressional Republicans ask Comey, Rogers, or Brennan are on "proof of collusion."
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(13) To this end, right-wing trolls undermine the anti-Trump movement with stories they know are BS about how indictments are "coming soon."
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(14) What Republican (federal) officials in D.C. know, and what right-wing trolls know, is that it's FAR TOO EARLY for PROOF of collusion.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(15) The goal of the online/offline GOP propaganda machine is to convince you that if there were any "there" to Russiagate we'd know by now.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(16) Meanwhile NONPARTISAN CAREER PROFESSIONALS in law enforcement tell us this is WELL WORTH investigating but they don't have answers yet.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(17) The GOP strategy is genius: (1) use Congress to "call out" hardworking law enforcement pros by acting as if their work should be done;
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(18) ...and (2) use the White House and right-wing trolls to *simultaneously* dangerously under-sell AND over-sell the Russia investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(19) Here are signs a career pro in the criminal justice system would use to determine if a given investigation is in its VERY EARLY stages:
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(20) (a) Are major figures in the case lawyered up? If such figures have no attorney or have *just gotten* an attorney, it's VERY EARLY ON.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(10) This is why the White House, GOP Congressmen, and far-right trolls like Louise Mensch want you to think it's LATE in the investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(11) To this end, the White House uses Sean Spicer and cable-news surrogates to ask America, every day, "Where's the evidence of collusion?"
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(12) To this end, the *only* non-leak-related questions Congressional Republicans ask Comey, Rogers, or Brennan are on "proof of collusion."
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(13) To this end, right-wing trolls undermine the anti-Trump movement with stories they know are BS about how indictments are "coming soon."
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(14) What Republican (federal) officials in D.C. know, and what right-wing trolls know, is that it's FAR TOO EARLY for PROOF of collusion.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(15) The goal of the online/offline GOP propaganda machine is to convince you that if there were any "there" to Russiagate we'd know by now.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(16) Meanwhile NONPARTISAN CAREER PROFESSIONALS in law enforcement tell us this is WELL WORTH investigating but they don't have answers yet.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(17) The GOP strategy is genius: (1) use Congress to "call out" hardworking law enforcement pros by acting as if their work should be done;
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(18) ...and (2) use the White House and right-wing trolls to *simultaneously* dangerously under-sell AND over-sell the Russia investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(19) Here are signs a career pro in the criminal justice system would use to determine if a given investigation is in its VERY EARLY stages:
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(20) (a) Are major figures in the case lawyered up? If such figures have no attorney or have *just gotten* an attorney, it's VERY EARLY ON.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(21) So, on that: Trump is *looking for* an attorney; Carter Page doesn't have one; Kushner hasn't retained one; Roger Stone *just* got one.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(22) Manafort has an attorney. Other figures (e.g. J.D. Gordon) don't. Flynn had one long ago, but he was seeking immunity—being pro-active.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(23) (b) Are investigators still in the investigatory phase? Yes. We've seen *not *one* indictment despite some easy-to-make federal cases.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(24) The feds have Flynn *dead to rights* on FARA violations *and* Making False Statements yet they're still in the "asking for docs" phase.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(25) Yes, there's a grand jury in Virginia, but it *just sent out its first subpoenas*—in a case where it will ultimately send out hundreds.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(26) Indeed, the FIRST THING I did in criminal cases was file a "Motion to Preserve Evidence." When did Congress do that? *A few weeks ago*.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(27) To underscore that last point: we'd expect this fed case to take SEVERAL YEARS—and Congress took its *first step* just a few weeks ago.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(28) (c) Have investigators spoken to the witnesses in the case? NO. NOT AT ALL. And note that this case will have *hundreds* of witnesses.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(29) Consider that Congress is still interviewing THE INVESTIGATORS. Comey twice; Rogers twice; and Brennan. No other attempt has been made.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(30) The closest Congress has come to a SINGLE ACTUAL WITNESS in a case with HUNDREDS of witnesses is Sally Yates. And look what happened.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(31) What happened is ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE. We had a dozen MAJOR #Russiagate stories in just twelve days. *Total bedlam* in Washington, D.C.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(32) What's amazing is, Yates ISN'T a witness in the usual sense. She's a member of law enforcement who (if accidentally) "worked the case."
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(33) So how about the now-defunct FBI investigation, the one that preceded the JUST-STARTED Special Counsel investigation? Same story there.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(34) While the FBI investigation was secretive, we have NO evidence Trump, Pence, Page, Manafort, Gordon, Kushner—etc—have been interviewed.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(35) Of course, Flynn is, here, the Yates-like exception. He WAS interviewed. What happened? ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE all over Washington, D.C.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(36) So a clear trend emerges: (i) we are VERY EARLY in the Russia investigation; (ii) ANY forward movement leads to ABSOLUTE BEDLAM in D.C.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(37) (d) What docs or other hard evidence do investigators have, or have they seized, if they've done hardly any interviews with witnesses?
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(38) This we can't know. BUT we DO know there have been NO reported domestic raids, seizures or voluntarily disclosed document caches (yet).
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(39) There may be efforts to find hard-to-get internationally held documentary evidence, but this'd be the SLOWEST part of an investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(40) Here too we find Yates- and Flynn-like EXCEPTIONS: namely, (i) leaks to the media, and (ii) surveillance resulting from FISA warrants.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(30) The closest Congress has come to a SINGLE ACTUAL WITNESS in a case with HUNDREDS of witnesses is Sally Yates. And look what happened.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(41) The ONE warrant that we KNOW has returned evidence...caused ALL HELL TO BREAK LOOSE, as it proved Mike Flynn committed multiple crimes.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(42) Just so, the leaks that have made the news caused...ALL HELL TO BREAK LOOSE, as they proved Don Trump committed Obstruction of Justice.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(43) So here too the trend is intact: ALL SIGNS say we're in the VERY EARLY STAGES of #Russiagate, but when ANYTHING is found it's ELECTRIC.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(44) What an experienced attorney will conclude is (a) we must IGNORE anyone, I mean ANYONE, who pretends we're LATE in this investigation.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(45) And (b), EVERY TIME investigators take even the SMALLEST STEP in their investigation, they find a MOUNTAIN of evidence of criminality.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(46) So what we progressives need is *cognitive dissonance*: we must accept that there's a long way to go AND that all signs suggest CRIMES.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(47) We must TUNE OUT sensationalistic major media, grandstanding Congressmen, social media tongue-wagging, and right-wing fake news/trolls.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(48) What we get in return is NEAR-ASSURANCE this President WILL be IMPEACHED. It'll simply take, unfortunately, a LONG time to get there.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(49) Because the GOP knows this, we must ALSO defend against their Plan B: trying to get back to business as usual as Mueller does his work.
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017(50) So THIS is our task: we must AT ONCE keep pressure high; expect a long haul; stay optimistic; and expect success. And then we WIN. /end
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Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) May 24, 2017